Night_Owl_Biotech
Jan 21, 2:31 AM
$DAWN was up 20% today on meaningful trading volumes. We have no idea if a DAWN M&A exit is finally imminent. We're only sharing an observation
Attached find M&A valuations paid 8 DAWN peers as multiples of revenue forecasts prepared by the acquiree's management. We provide the same for DAWN using analyst consensus.
It's our experience most of these comm'l-stage bios forecast to get up to
$800 -
$1B/year in product sales are acquired for enterprise values of
$1.7 -
$2.1B. DAWN noted it ended the year with
$441 cash before paying very roughly
$100MM (net) for
$MRSN
There are ~120MM fully diluted DAWN shares @ 9/30/25 incl 14MM ISOs of which ~9.2MM were vested. All are under water. WAEP = ~
$16/sh
$CTIC may be a good peer for 10-year multiple comps because Vonjo had 11 years to patent expiration when acquired. We understand Ojemda's patent expires in June 2035.
See MRSN's financial forecast provided DAWN (peak sales =
$200MM)
Just for entertainment. This is not investment advice
$XBI $IBB
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