Aug. 2 at 8:27 AM
$AUTL Peak annual sales (B-ALL only): Recalibrate to
$250M as a conservative "base case".
Add modest expansion (pediatric & autoimmune): Upside of
$50–
$100M within 5 years, so total peak sales
$300–
$350M is more reasonable for the next cycle.
Market share: Realistically 20–25% in r/r B-ALL as a new entrant, higher only with clear evidence of clinical superiority.
Multiple selection: Use 7x as a conservative but fair multiple, at the lower end of high-growth commercial biotechs.
Enterprise Value calculation:
$325M (peak sales midpoint) × 7 =
$2.28B.
Add cash: ~
$500M net cash in mid-2025.
Equity value:
$2.28B +
$0.5B =
$2.78B.
Shares outstanding: ~266M.
Per-share fair value:
$2.78B ÷ 266M =
$10.45/share.
Sensitivity check: If only
$250M in peak sales or a 6x multiple, fair value is
$8–
$9/share.
Compare with current trading price: Stock is near
$2. This recalibrated fair value still offers significant potential upside.
