Nov. 26 at 4:10 PM
Commercial-stage oncology focused M&A exits have averaged 4-6/year the last 4 years.
The most recent M&A exit was 3 months ago. Attached is a history of comm'l-stage oncology focused M&A since 1/1/2017 by month/year
History shows 90% of those bios that exit within 2 years of FDA approval generate meaningful returns for shareholders (see previous posts). 90% of those that wait 2 years+ result in losses v. share prices @ FDA approval.
We guess the next M&A candidates in this peer group (
$300MM to
$6B) after SNDX as we post dozens of times per week;
1.
$URGN as Jelmyto has long peaked at
$100MM/year. Zusduri was approved in June 2025. We suspect Ms. Barrett is wise enough to exit before Zusduri disappoints
2.
$NUVB as its profile appears quite similar to Merus
3.
$DCTH as we're approaching 3 years since the private equity financing (private equity prefers 3 year exits)
4.
$ZYME self-evident by JAZZ
5.
$IOVA the lung data is out
This is not investment advice. These are guesses for entertainment.
