Dec. 20 at 5:15 PM
How fast can you spot an asymmetric setup—and when do you bail?
I bought
$TE quickly because it hit the few factors that matter most: explosive revenue growth, a high revenue-to-market-cap ratio, and direct AI-energy exposure. At that valuation, risk/reward was heavily skewed unless something was fundamentally broken.
The stock jumped ~30% (
$3.52 →
$4.50), then fell ~40% to
$2.56. Painful—but nothing in the thesis broke. Price moved, fundamentals didn’t, so it became more attractive. I consolidated into July
$5 calls.
Contrast that with
$AMSC. I assumed AI-linked energy demand guaranteed execution. Earnings proved otherwise—either the moat or scaling wasn’t there. New information broke the thesis, so I exited, taking a large loss.
Rule: Don’t sell because price moves. Sell when facts change. Asymmetric investing requires logic over emotion, constant re-evaluation, and the willingness to be wrong—early.
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