Aug. 25 at 7:51 PM
$NEXT
Phase 1 (Trains 1–3, ~17.5 MTPA): up to 20.8%
Train 4 (~6 MTPA): 40%, stepping up to 60% after partners hit return hurdles
Train 5 (~6 MTPA): 50%, stepping up to 70% after hurdles
Margin assumption:
US Gulf Coast tolling typically net
$2.50–3.50/MMBtu of distributable margin after project debt service.
Back-of-envelope distributable cash flow to NextDecade at steady state:
Initial interest: 9.0M tonnes ×
$150/tonne ≈
$1.35B/year
Post-step-up: 11.4M tonnes ×
$150/tonne ≈
$1.71B/year
Capitalizing that at a typical infrastructure/contracted-cash-flow multiple (8–11x distributable CF, reflecting long-dated SPAs but construction/ramp risk until full COD across all 5 trains by ~2031):
Initial:
$1.35B × 8–11x ≈
$10.8B–
$14.9B
Post-step-up:
$1.71B × 8–11x ≈
$13.7B–
$18.8B
Per share, using ~262M shares outstanding (this will dilute somewhat further from warrants/incentive equity, so treat this as a floor):
Initial-interest case:
$41–
$57/share
Post-step-up case:
$52–
$72/share
