Nov. 21 at 6:07 PM
$PRCH guessing i'm a prch holder longer than most here. long n strong since startup days. great mgmt n biz fundamentals matter in the long run, and here's six reasons to be long, in reverse order of importance ...
1_ market reax to q3 earnings was optical accident that obscured a structurally stronger + stronger company -- and same stock-mtm physics that caused q3 eps miss will cause q4 eps crush if prch stays depressed
2_ stock price has zero effect on pire-reciprocal's surplus, rwp, ergo prch rev-adj ebitda
3_ q4's patient capital preservation unlocks 2026 premium expansion via m+a, as matt sugg'd wed at stephens nash25 conf: use recip's growing statutory surplus to acquire regional insurer—non-dilutive, *surplus-accretive*, rwp-accretive, high margin-rev-accretive
4_ 💡it's the farmers-zurich-size scaling model -- use existing surplus to acquire-merge with other carriers that bring even more surplus, more policies, and more geography -- supercharged by porch's proprietary home risk data = best-in-class underwriting = redic margins
5_ context to keep in mind when you hear matt say he's 'building something really big' -- use statutory surplus to acquire… MORE statutory surplus. that's the flywheel. it turns slow early, but spins geometrically faster n faster once it gets going.
6_ patience *will* pay
