May. 28 at 10:41 AM
Citizens reiterated
$CELC Market Outperform;
$160 and said: ASCO will be a critical venue, where CELC will seek to highlight gedatolisib's profile ahead of a potential approval in July.
$RLAY AZN PFE RHHBY BGNE OKUR KZIA TEVA OTSKY
$NVS
Citizens added—In the PIK3CA mutant cohort of the VIKTORIA-1 Ph3 study, the gedatolisib triplet (incl. fulvestrant + palbociclib) and doublet (incl. fulvestrant) regimens achieved a "statistically significant and clinically meaningful" improvement in PFS, compared to alpelisib + fulvestrant. The key question now is - what is the mPFS? Our bar is ~11-12 months - details here. Given the SAP, which assumes 13 months PFS for the triplet, we estimate an ~25% chance that the triplet mPFS is <12 months and an ~13% chance it is <11 months.
Consequently, we believe results will be very competitive and meet investor expectations at ASCO.
