Apr. 4 at 11:09 PM
$RLAY
Who could be buying, what do you think?
Scenario 1: Pfizer needs to protect its existing RLY-1971 partnership. Novartis wants the rare disease monopoly. If both enter a formal bidding war in late April, the price could easily reach
$28 -
$32 per share.
Scenario 2: A suitor like Merck or Eli Lilly makes a take it or leave it pre-emptive offer to the board. Typically a 50% - 100% premium over the 30-day average. Given the current
$12.54 base, this places the offer in the
$22 -
$26 range.
Scenario 3: The CVR sweetener, common in 2026 biotech deals. A suitor pays
$20 cash now + a
$5 CVR if the May 20th data meets specific efficacy targets. The Price: Effectively
$25.00.
I still say Pfizer, the partnership is already there really.
