Jun. 23 at 6:49 PM
$TWO $UWMC If the CCM deal dies on July 2 — bullish. The overhang is gone, the balance sheet stress goes away, no dilution risk, management refocuses on core origination. Stock likely bounces on relief.
If UWM wins the deal and closes it — also bullish long term.
$176B MSR portfolio gives them recurring servicing income that hedges their origination business. They become a fundamentally different and more durable company.
The bear case is the messy middle — CCM deal dies but UWM still can’t close their own acquisition, leaving TWO in limbo and UWM having wasted months of management bandwidth and credibility with a deteriorating stock price to show for it.
But if you’re long UWMC right now you’re essentially getting paid a ~20% dividend to wait for one of two bullish outcomes. The market has been pricing in the chaos and uncertainty, not the destination.
