Jul. 25 at 9:13 PM
The attachment shows a
$SNDX $INCY Niktimvo US sales forecast using data points per the Nov 2024
$RPRX investor presentation.
RPRX invested
$350MM for a 13.8% royalty on Niktimvo US sales, capped @ 2.35X or
$822.5MM. RPRX noted they expect to be fully repaid by FY38. Cumulative sales of
$5.96B are needed to repay
$822.5MM via 13.8% royalties. This is simple math.
We therefore know with certainty, at the time of RPRX's investment in 11/24, RPRX projected
$5.96B in cumulative Niktimvo US sales between FY25 & 38. Yes of course things change
SNDX accrued a
$12.115MM royalty obligation as a current liability at 12/31/24. At 13.8%, SNDX projected ~
$88MM in FY25 Niktimvo US sales
The attached Niktimvo US sales forecast uses these data points. Of course it is not perfect but it has to be close because the 13.8% royalties due on these projected sales results in an IRR to RPRX of 11.2%. RPRX noted they project an IRR in the "low single-digits." Cumulative FY2538 sales =
$5.96B
Yes things change
$XBI