Night_Owl_Biotech
Oct 29, 8:07 PM
$SNDX
Attached are 2 screenshots from
$RPRX 's investor presentation from 8/2026 and 9/2025 related to their investment in Incyte's/SNDX's Niktimvo.
You will see in September 2025, RPRX noted Niktimvo's consensus 5-year sales target was 98% higher compared to its 5-year estimate at the time of funding. In August 2026, the increase in 5-year sales was only 22% higher compared to the time of funding. These are RPRX's estimates (not our estimates).
If you believe Niktimvo's valuation is some multiple of projected sales, and Niktimvo's 5-year sales forecast is 38% lower today than it was in 9/2025 (198 v 122), then obviously Niktimvo's valuation is also roughly 38% lower than it was in 9/2025 (13 months ago).
Investors shouldn't be alarmed. SNDX's CEO is really smart. Why exit via M&A when he gets generous stock grants every year no matter SNDX's share price
Does anyone read RPRX's estimates differently?
$INCY reported cash of
$3.85B as of 9/30/26. SNDX's market cap is ~
$1.3B
2 replies