May. 16 at 3:07 AM
The attachment compares the Year 4 (FY2029), 5-year & 10-year revenue multiples of the 5 largest commercial-stage oncology focused bios using enterprise value. The table uses enterprise value, right or wrong, because cash/debt provides meaningful portions of the cap table of all 5. The table also provides a 5-year gross margin multiple (using actual FY25 gross margin). All 5 have at least 10 analysts that provide FY26 – 30 revenue forecasts. Again, all multiples use enterprise value (not market cap).
$INCY clearly trades at the lowest 5-year revenue multiple. This is likely because the patent on Incyte’s best selling therapy called Jakafi expires in December 2028. Still, decreases in Jakafi sales appear to manifest in Incyte’s FY2029 consensus. Incyte still trades at the 2nd lowest 10-year multiple.
$EXEL has the highest 5-year revenue multiple in the peer group.
This is not investment advice. We’re merely sharing our analysis.
$JAZZ $GMAB $ONC