Jul. 15 at 4:25 PM
$HNGE $MNTN
Bullish Thesis for Hinge Health (HNGE)
1. 📊 Strong Growth & Scalable Profitability
• Q1 2025 delivered 50% YoY revenue growth (~
$123.8 M) and a surprising quarterly profit of
$0.22/share after prior losses .
• FY 2024 revenue reached
$390 M (+33% YoY) with a 77% gross margin, and free cash flow of
$45 M as net losses narrowed to
$11.9 M .
This demonstrates strong unit economics and clear path to sustainable profitability.
2. 🌐 Dominant in a Massive, Under‑penetrated Market
• Over 40% of U.S. adults suffer from MSK conditions, costing ~
$381 B annually in medical expenses .
• Hinge offers a clinical-validated, AI-powered digital MSK care platform with proven outcomes: 56% fewer spinal fusions, 73% fewer knee and 50% fewer hip replacements .
• Covers 2,250+ clients (~20M lives in Dec 2024) and 532K+ patients with 98% client retention .
3. 🧠 AI + Automation = Lower Cost, Higher Quality
• Uses AI-based motion tracking and care coordination to reduce clinician hours by up to 95%, enabling scalable automation without sacrificing outcomes .
• William Blair initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating, citing 79% gross margins and highlighting Hinge as a transformative platform in healthcare .
4. 🔧 Favorable Technical Setup
• RS Rating now >90, indicating elite performance vs peers .
• Recently broke out past its IPO base buy point (
$43.80), backed by solid fundamentals: Q1 profit, margin expansion, and consistent momentum .
5. 🚀 Room to Expand
• Pipeline includes Medicare Advantage, international expansion (e.g., Canada, Europe), and adjacent digital health verticals .
• Leadership aims to extend AI-led automation across broader care types by 2026
Bullish Thesis for MNTN (Ticker: MNTN)
1. Robust Revenue Growth & Scale
• 2024 revenue:
$225.6 M, up 27.9% YoY from
$176.3 M in 2023 .
• 2025 TTM (trailing‑12 months) revenue: around
$230 M, downshifting to ~4.3% YoY growth due to comp effect ().
• Revenue surged 10× since 2020, with growth accelerated by PTV adoption .
2. Performance TV (PTV) – Core Driver
• PTV revenue reached
$205.3 M in 2024, comprising over 90% of total revenue .
• Q1 2025 PTV revenue grew 48% YoY, reaching
$65 M — indicating accelerating subscription and campaign adoption ().
3. Massive & Expanding Addressable Market
• CTV ad spending projected to be
$33–35 B in 2025, and trending toward
$47 B by 2028 ().
• MNTN connects 2,225+ customers in 2024 (up nearly 90% YoY), 96% of whom are SMBs entering TV advertising for the first time .
4. Efficient, Profitable Operations
• Adjusted EBITDA in 2024 was
$38.8 M, up from
$32.5 M in 2023 — demonstrating strong margin leverage .
• Gross margin around 72%, among the highest in ad-tech, driven by scalable SaaS delivery ().
• Net loss improved to
$32.9 M in 2024 (vs. ‑
$53.3 M in 2023), and Q1 2025 loss widened moderately to ‑
$21.1 M on higher investment, but revenue growth remains strong .
5. Strong IPO Momentum & Valuation Upside
• IPO in May 2025 raised ~
$187 M at
$16/share, debuting around
$26–27, valuing the company between
$1.6–1.7 B .
• Trades at ~32× adjusted EBITDA — in line with premium ad-tech peers like The Trade Desk .
• Average analyst price target near
$27, suggesting ~10–15% upside from current levels .
6. Key Growth Drivers & Moat
• SMB-led growth: 96% of customers are TV-first SMBs; organic inbound model drove 89% YoY customer growth in Q1 2025 .
• Data flywheel: Each advertiser strengthens targeting via proprietary “Verified Visits” and performance analytics .
• Tech muscle: Plans to grow engineering team from ~33% to ~50% of workforce by end‑2025 ().
• Celebrity creative edge: Ryan Reynolds adds brand and creative credibility, enhancing differentiation
