Apr. 10 at 3:33 PM
$GH $HNGE
My two healthcare growth play. Im in accumulation mode
1. GH Guardant health:
Growth
• Revenue growth still strong (~20–30% YoY), driven by oncology testing (liquid biopsy)
• TAM expanding fast (early cancer detection + recurrence monitoring = multi-billion opportunity)
• Volume growth accelerating as adoption improves with oncologists + payors
Revenue Quality
• Recurring, test-based model → high visibility
• Increasing reimbursement coverage = key inflection
Valuation
• ~
$7–8B market cap vs long-term TAM
$50B+ (screening optionality not fully priced in)
• EV/Sales ~6–8x → reasonable for a category leader with secular growth
Bull Case Target
• Base:
$110–130
• Bull:
$150+ (if screening adoption + profitability inflect)
2. HH Hinge health
Growth
• Hyper-growth digital health (~30–40%+ revenue growth)
• Strong enterprise adoption (employers + insurers shifting to cost-saving MSK solutions)
• High engagement + outcomes = sticky platform
Revenue Quality
• SaaS-like recurring contracts
• High gross margins (~70%+) → operating leverage story
Valuation
• Likely trading ~6–9x forward sales (depending on post-IPO levels)
• Discount vs top-tier digital health / SaaS comps despite better unit economics
Bull Case Target
• Base:
$35–45
• Bull:
$55–65 (if margins scale + growth sustains >30%)
GH = deep biotech + long-term optionality (higher risk, higher upside)
• HNGE = SaaS-like healthcare disruptor (cleaner story, faster path to profitability)
GH = deep biotech + long-term optionality (higher risk, higher upside)
• HNGE = SaaS-like healthcare disruptor (cleaner story, faster path to profitability)
If market favors AI/biotech innovation → GH wins
If market favors profitable growth / SaaS → HNGE wins