H. Lundbeck A/S (HLBBF)

The Avadel transaction & SEC filing this AM provides new M&A valuation related data points This morning $AVDL filed its draft 14A with the SEC that included, among other things, the financial forecast provided $ALKS Coincidentally, this morning Lundberg $HLBBF offered $2.1B upfront for AVDL which was 4.0X AVDL's FY2029 (Year 4) revenue forecast and 0.37X AVDL's cumulative 10-year revenue forecast. AVDL did not provide a specific gross margin forecast but 9 month YTD gross margin was 92%. ALKS offered $1.85B which was 3.5X AVDL Year 4 revenue forecast & 0.33X its cumulative 10-year revenue forecast. All multiples exclude CVR potential By comparison, @ $16.62/share SNDX trades @ 1.5X FY2029 analyst estimates and 0.11X cumulative 10-year analyst estimates. We note AVDL here on SNDX because AVDL's offers were consistent with M&A multiples paid most peer ranging between 0.30 & 0.40X cumulative 10-year revenue forecasts and/or Year 4 multiples from 3.0 to 5.0X. This is not investment advice

BTIG🏁 $DRUG Buy/$72. LBPH - $HLUBF/ $HLBBF $UCBJY $PRAX BTIG said in its initiation report: Bright Minds Biosciences ( $DRUG, Buy, $72 PT) is developing a very specific 5-HT2C agonist for epilepsies that is widely viewed as Longboard-like, but with key points of differentiation. BTIG added:

BTIG reit'd $TBPH Buy-$25/said it conts2view CYPRESS as sig derisked by preceding P3s— $TBPH utilized an external enrollment cmte =g same clinical neuro's for both Study 0170/CYPRESS, supporting pot for +VE readthru between the two trials. $ATHE $HLUBF $HLBBF $GSK AZN BTIG said:

H.C. Wainwright reiterated $DRUG Buy/$85. LBPH - $HLUBF/ $HLBBF $PRAX $JAZZ UCBJY UCBJF SNDX AVXL PHVS H.C. Wainwright said in its note:

TD Cowen🏁 $DRUG at a Buy rating, said lead asset BMB-101 is a biased 5-HT2C agonist that has the potential to be best in class (BiC) for the treatment of certain refractory seizure disorders. $LBPH - $HLBBF TD Cowen additionally said in its initiation report: "Bright Minds Bio is a biotechnology company developing next generation serotonin (5-HT) modulating drugs for the treatment of seizure, neurologic, and neuropsychiatric disorders. Lead candidate BMB-101 is a highly selective and potent G-protein biased 5-HT2C receptor agonist currently in Ph. Il development for rare and refractory seizure disorders (absence/DEE). Other 5-HT2C agonists have shown impressive anti-seizure activity; however, have limitations on dosing and durability. While development remains, BMB-101 has the potential to overcome these limitations. Our KOLs have highlighted the need for additional and improved ASMs for both absence seizures and DEEs." TD Cowen went on to say:

Chardan🏁 $DRUG Buy-$80, said "Leveraging Serotonin for Treating Epilepsy; Initiate with Buy; PT $80" $LBPH - $HLBBF Chardan said in its initiation report:

H.C. Wainwright, on 2/19, reiterated $DRUG Buy-$85 and said "we view Bright Minds as a differentiated player in the serotonergic epilepsy landscape with BMB-101 positioned as a potential best-in-class therapy pending Phase 2 data in 2Q25." $HLBBF - $LBPH H.C. Wainwright said in its note to investors:

Piper Sandler🏁 $DRUG Overweight-$93, says 'we are initiating coverage on Bright Minds Biosciences with an OW rating and $93 PT.' $LBPH $HLBBF "We believe its lead asset, BMB-101, is a differentiated G-protein biased 5-HT2C agonist positioned to drive sustained efficacy in drug-resistant epilepsies with clean safety. In our view, the recent $2.6B acquisition of Longboard Pharmaceuticals (by H. Lundbeck A/S, not covered) validates the 5-HT2C agonist MoA value proposition with positive bexicaserin Ph1b/2a PACIFIC data driving strategic interest. As such, we see BMB-101 as a more potent 5-HT2C agonist compared to bexicaserin with no ß-arrestin recruitment. Thus, we expect 2H25 topline from open-label Ph2 BREAKTHROUGH in n =~ 20 absence epilepsy or DEE patients to drive share movement and potentially close the ~$2.35B valuation gap in tandem with a growing portfolio of 5-HT assets."

$HLBBF Phase 3 trial w/est Jun completion date NCT05064371: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05064371 Trial Tracker: https://www.fdatracker.com/trial-tracker/