Nov. 2 at 5:45 PM
$ATHE I got this analysis on key red flags. Anyone has a point of view?
Dilution Velocity: 90% share increase in 12 months is catastrophic for existing shareholders. Even if ATH434 succeeds, early investors face massive dilution through Phase 3 and commercialization.
Smart Money Exodus: 2.1% institutional ownership is a SCREAMING red flag. If the Phase 2 data were truly compelling, we’d expect 15-25% institutional ownership. Their absence suggests:
• Hidden clinical trial issues not visible in topline data
• Skepticism about regulatory pathway
• Concerns about capital efficiency
• Better alternatives in the Parkinsonian disorder space
Liquidity Death Spiral: With <
$1M daily volume, any institutional attempt to build a position would spike the price 20-30%. Conversely, retail exit attempts during adverse news create air pockets. This stock trades by appointment only.
