Dec. 14 at 4:10 PM
$BTC.X
$ETHE $IBIT
while i’m not trained to read charts, i believe the charts are snapshots of what happened (not why it happened)
what transpired in actuality, is the following:
$BTC.X halved on april 19-20 2024. block rewards did halve. based on historical, a blow off was expected by oct 2025. which did not materialize. neither did an ensuing typical 50%+ draw down. we’re sitting on a 30% draw down vs oct highs.
no violent moves in either directions.
30% draw down is more consistent with liquidity drain (not typical bitcoin halving behavior).
irrespective, headwinds are real. logic follows that volatile moves to the upside, without liquidity support, lack durability.
downside risk is a different question. but this certainly is not halving behavior.
