Sep. 1 at 4:01 PM
September is historically the weakest month for U.S. stocks, with the Dow , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq averaging declines of 1.1%, 1.1%, and 0.9%, respectively. However, this year may differ as August showed strong gains—DJIA +3.2%, SPX +1.9%, COMP +1.6%, and RUT +7%—supported by optimism over a potential Fed rate cut and easing inflation pressures.
Technical trends also favor a stronger September: when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average, the month historically returns +1.3% on average with a 60% chance of gains versus -4.2% and 15% positivity when below. The index ended August above its 200-DMA at 6,460.26 vs. 5,957.05.
Key risks include the August jobs report and the Fed meeting on Sept. 16-17, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut to 4–4.25%. Uncertainty remains over whether the cut will be dovish or hawkish, while the low VIX (+6.44%) signals calm that could precede volatility later in the month.
$COMP $RUT $DJIA $SPX