Oct. 4 at 8:52 PM
$FBIO $FBIOP My rough prediction for Q3 wrap now:
Fortress / consolidated (in millions), ultra basic
Revs: 18
COGS: 6
Dep./Am.: 1
R+D: 1.2 (Saving 6.9m from Q2 CKPT expenses)
SG+A: 18.9 (Saving 19.9m from Q2 CKPT expenses)
Interest Exp.: 2.5
Earnings at -11.6m
Fortress looks like they will be burning approximately 10m per Q... even as they ramp EMROSI, the SG+A will also increase through DERM to a ceiling value TBD.
Oaktree note has a 30 month interest only expense, From July 2024. That means in January 2027 they will need to begin payback of principal. Currently they've only drawn 35m, but can access another 15m if they're on their best behavior.
There seems to be a way through this without another S-3 in the next 12 months. If my prediction is correct, FBIO will have around 65m in cash at this time, and approximately 6 quarters (1.5 years) to right the ship... and most certainly by January 2027. Wild card is the FDA curtailment, and their non-acceptance of "New NDA's" at this time.
