Nov. 20 at 6:20 PM
$XIACY Xiaomi’s stock isn't just a smartphone recovery story anymore. The real alpha is hiding in the Q3 margin divergence.
📉 The Phone Risk: Smartphone margins are healthy (~22%), but they are fighting gravity. High-end "Ultra" phones rely on Sony sensors and Japanese passives. As the carry trade unwinds and the Yen strengthens, component costs (COGS) rise, threatening to squeeze those hardware profits.
📈 The EV Reality: Meanwhile, the SU7 EV division just hit ~25.5% gross margins—beating Tesla. Why? Supply Chain Sovereignty.
Batteries: CATL/BYD (RMB-priced).
Motors: Inovance (China).
Chips: USD/Local.
The Trade: The Yen shock hurts the legacy phone business, but Xiaomi’s growth engine (EV) is structurally insulated. You aren't buying a phone maker; you're buying a German-quality EV with a Chinese cost structure.
