Dec. 1 at 12:59 PM
$UPBD - Upbound Alpha Report (Technicals + Fundamentals + Risks)
1) Technicals: Reversal Forming @ Major Support
Bounce off
$16–16.50 is a long-term demand zone.
RSI rising to 42, and MACD histogram is green.
10/20 EMAs flipped buy, could imply early trend shift to upside.
Heavy volume = accumulation in deep value zone.
=> Mean reversion toward
$20–22 likely.
2) Fundamentals Recovering Faster vs Stock
Q3 Revenue: +8.97% YoY; EBITDA trending YoY positive for 5 straight quarters.
Net income TTM:
$84.5M (up sharply YoY).
FCF TTM:
$140.6M, with Q3 FCF at
$97.9M.
Analyst View: 6 Strong Buys, AVG upside +75%
=> The company is not deteriorating, it’s quietly improving.
3) Yield is Huge & Covered by Cash Flow
Dividend 100% of earnings, but only 60% of FCF.
P/E 12.46 = deep value.
FCF >
$90M/yr = dividend sustainability threshold (currently above).
=> Dividend headline risk is misleading, under the hood FCF coverage is solid.
