Nov. 15 at 11:23 PM
$KOS this is why I believe the upside is worth the current debt risk. They just signaled they are starting to monetize these type assets.
✅ Yakaar-Teranga + Tiberius conversion to 2P
2024YE 2P 530 mmboe
Yakaar-Teranga net resources 3,750 mmboe
Tiberius net 50 mmboe Assumption consistent with Kosmos disclosures
Shares outstanding ~478M
Net debt ~
$2.3B
Valuation multiple for 2P
$2–
$5 / boe Typical offshore 2P range
Prob of Yakaar → 2P 55%
Prob of Tiberius → 2P 35%
Joint probability (both) 20–30%
Use 25% mid-case
NAV under each scenario (mid-case
$3/boe)
Scenario 2P boe NAV (
$B) Per share
1. Neither 530M
$1.59B
$3.32/share
2. Tiberius only 580M
$1.74B
$3.64/share
3. Yakaar only 4,280M
$10.54B
$22.05/share
4. Both convert 4,330M
$10.69B
$22.36/share
📌 Probability-weighted expected:
Scenario Probability
Neither converts 45%
Tiberius only 10%
Yakaar only 30%
Both convert 15%
Expected value of Kosmos Energy shares = ≈
$11.00 per share
