Oct. 8 at 11:59 AM
Mizuho reiterated
$ALKS Outperform/
$40
$CNTA $AXSM $TAK
Mizuho said in its note: We preview 3Q25 for ALKS and expect slightly above-consensus 3Q25 revenues of
$358M (vs.
$355M Bloomberg cons) and GAAP EPS of
$0.31 (vs.
$0.30 cons), driven by potentially above-consensus Aristada and Lybalvi sales.
That said, we believe investors are likely more focused on the Vibance-2 Phase 2 readout for alixorexton (ALKS-2680) in narcolepsy type 2 (NT2) this fall.
Heading into this readout, we believe the key concerns are potential for high visual AE rates as Vibrance-2 evaluates higher doses (10, 14, 18mg) than 8mg, which demonstrated a significantly higher-than-expected visual AE rate of 29% in the Vibrance-1 NT1 trial. These concerns may be overstated, as NT2/IH patients are likely less hypersensitive to orexin than NT1, and so the visual AE rates may not be as high.
Thus, the risk/reward could be skewed to the upside. Maintain
$40 PT and OP rating.
