Oct. 1 at 2:23 AM
Ran some scenarious using chat gpt and the bull case here is very strong. The new acquisition will be very accretive.
Scenario probabilities (rough framework)
Bull case (25–30% probability)
Integration smooth, EBITDA >
$200M by 2026, synergies >
$20M.
Market assigns 15–18× P/E like peers.
Base case (45–50% probability)
EBITDA lands
$200M but synergies partially realized (
$10–15M).
Market cautious, assigns 10–12× P/E (discount to peers).
Bear case (20–25% probability)
Integration rocky, EBITDA <
$180M, high debt drag, limited synergies.
Market keeps multiple low (~8–9× P/E).
