Jun. 24 at 3:44 PM
$AEHR will do ~
$60M in revenue this year, ~20-25m selling whole machine systems and ~
$33M selling their contactors, with the rest services. Their existing TAM is ~
$500M in machine sales, growing as test moves from the processor level towards the wafer level. They are simultaneously expanding up the supply chain into processor test. The consumable (contactor) segment is another ~
$500M in TAM
AEHR is at the leading edge with the ability to probe greater surface area at higher intensity than its competitors and is gaining rapid share in the AI test and burn market. At only 25% market share this would imply
$250M in revenue, which at 22-24' margin levels generates ~
$2 in EPS and puts AEHR at ~6x EPS. Of course as they grow their R&D investment will expand their offering to penetrate a whole burn-in market of ~
$2B, meaning this scenario assumes a mere 12.5% market share
There is 25% short interest in this - for shorts to be right they effectively cannot gain market share
