Jun. 1 at 12:23 AM
$PRPL I expect 180 day extension & no RS…
My low-case 2026 EBITDA model assumes Q2 is roughly
$0, as I don’t expect much improvement yet due to accounting adjustments and no meaningful marketing push. With Q1 Adjusted EBITDA at about -
$4.8M and management’s low-end FY guidance at
$20M, Purple would still need around
$24.8M from Q3 and Q4 combined. If performance improves each quarter as management suggested, my low-case estimate is about
$8M in Q3 and
$16.8M in Q4, reaching roughly
$20M for the year. So Q2 does not need to be strong, but Q3 and Q4 must show a clear profitability ramp.
If Q4 EBITDA reaches
$16M and the market values Purple at 15x annualized EBITDA with no reverse split, the implied valuation is about
$960M. Using roughly 108.8M basic shares, that equals about
$8.82 per share. Including warrant dilution, it is closer to
$6.42, or about
$6.36 including warrants plus options/RSUs. So my estimated fair-value range after strong Q4 results is roughly
$6.35–
$8.80 per share
