Sep. 16 at 3:39 PM
UBS lowered
$BHVN's PT to
$26 from
$27, reiterated Buy and said, we see meaningful upside to
$BHVN stock if troriluzole is approved (Slide 1).
Our base case models a 40% PoS for troriluzole with an estimated PDUFA date in mid-Nov (BHVN has not disclosed a date); we model ~
$840M riskadj peak sales (Slide 4).
Beyond troriluzole, we see value in rest of the pipeline: BHV-7000 (Kv7) has higher chance of working in focal epilepsy (1H26), while, degraders can generate long-term value.
Our
$26 PT (prior
$27) is derived by applying an unchanged 4.5x multiple to EV/'30E sales, supported by DCF framework. We update EU SCA market entry to reflect MAA delays.
Our new risk. adj.'30E troriluzole sales are
$406M (prior
$441M).
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