Jul. 12 at 2:46 PM
$QQQ $SPY $DJI [Again] The major indices are Overbought on the 1YR and nearly the same on the 3YR weekly. The new round of letters revert to April-1 tariff levels, and in some cases (Brazil) are even HIGHER. Of course-the argument will be that these are non-sensical negotiating tactics (already imputed). The BBB requires
$3.5-5.0T in new leverage while the 10 yr remains at/around 4.3%. The constant churn with tariffs will further restrict Fed policy measures and likely delay (at least) Fed response (market currently has 2 Fed cuts anticipated this year). 2025FY guidance (Q2) will be muted at best and Q2 GDP may look flat (watch out if it actually shows a negative reading). If you are looking at the QQQ, watch the neck line at/around
$500 and the gap fill to
$493. That is a 10% correction from today.
$SQQQ 3X short on the QQQ and/or
$EARN just broke above resistance, 18% yield (monthly compounding) - some interesting near term alternatives (IMO).
