Sep. 7 at 11:31 PM
$CNE.TSX My A.I is giving the acquistion less than 4-8 week maximum timeline now. The chairwoman of the board confirming negotiations puts a lot of pressure on both parties to not only close the deal positively, but do so in a reasonable amount of time. The fact that the buyer was the leak indicates that they were gauging market reaction to the acquisition (which was positive -
$EC trending up). EC was also testing reactions to their estimated purchase price of
$1.2B enterprise value. CNEC shareholder benefit will depend on when this EV was calculated (net debt increased between Q2 financials and August by about
$95M), as well as if EC sweetens the deal based on Colombia's strategic necessity (country currently has a gas deficit). I'm estimating 17.15-20.95 CNE share price when the acquisition becomes official. The risk here seems quite low compared to upside based on the strategic necessity as well as the reputational risk from chairwoman's announcement. https://forbes.co/2025/09/04/economia-y-finanzas/ecopetrol-explora-compra-de-canacol-energy-tras-acuerdo-de-confidencialidad-segun-presidenta-de-su-junta-directiva
