Sep. 24 at 7:10 PM
$BRCB I’ve been following Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) since the IPO and noticed it’s already pulled back into the
$25 range after debuting around
$27.50.
What’s interesting to me is the similarity to Dutch Bros (BROS) a few years ago:
Dutch Bros IPO’d at
$23 in 2021, shot up to over
$70 almost immediately, then collapsed back into the low
$20S in 2022 (a ~65% drop).
Fast forward to now, and BROS has recovered into the
$60S again.
So here’s the thought experiment: what if BRCB does the same thing?
IPO baseline: ~
$27.50
A 65% correction (like BROS had) → would put BRCB around
$9–11/share.
That would be well below the
$15–20 “reasonable entry” I had in mind, but totally within the realm of possibility given how new IPOs trade and how volatile growth stories can be.
Curious what others think — is BRCB destined to retrace deeper before building a real base, or do we think it holds up better given Dutch Bros already paved the way for the category?
