Jun. 24 at 11:26 PM
$AMRN I realize everyone is excited by the news and happy that it's "up 15% over the last year". But the reality is, other than swing traders, no investors in the past 5 years have made any money in Amarin.
$150M milestone payment sounds nice, but Amarin needs to have annual net sales of
$100M in Europe to reach this. For reference, they sold
$4M the last quarter of 2024 (
$12M total for 2024).
Recordati projected they will produce
$40M in sales by 2027, so it is unlikely we will see a
$150M payment before 2029 or 2030. Good God, to imagine another 5 years here....
And we have no idea what the royalty % is. Let's hope it's 20% or greater, but don't be surprised if it's lower. Don't color me surprised if we never know.
I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic, and there is no doubt the stock was undervalued, but a 20-30% bump seemed reasonable for additional cash and cost-cutting.
I thought I saw a callout for a
$150-200 buyout already? I want what he's smoking!
