Mar. 27 at 6:06 PM
$AMRN Way too early. Novartis keeps buying but Amarin’s biggest repricing variables are still directly ahead. EMT2, LR USPTO FOA, and Hikma/SCOTUS clarity materially change what a buyer will be forced to pay versus today's value. Roughly speaking, EMT2 can add anywhere from
$0.4B–
$2.0B+ depending on how strong/clean the data are, LR can add
$0.3B–
$1.5B+ depending on survivability/reset path via impending first office action (due any day), and legal clarity with SCOTUS (by June) can shrink the discount/escrow excuse. Amarin is cleaner operationally, cash flowing, debt free, and harder to lowball than it was a year ago (buyer finally has leverage). Sarissa’s job is not to sell early just because Novartis is actively buying companies. Their investment thesis and MO is to maximize exit price. Selling a cleaned-up asset right before the looming catalyst stack matures/tightens up the final evaluation range and lifts the floor would be negotiating stupidly against itself.
