Jul. 27 at 9:00 PM
$DAIC $HCWB $XXII $XPON $NIVF
Sharing a dilution/compliance-risk screen I built, anchored to a specific Nasdaq rule change.
The trigger: Nasdaq now requires listed companies to maintain a Market Value of Listed Securities (price × total listed shares) of at least
$5MILLION . The rule took effect 7/23/26. If a company stays under that line for 30 consecutive business days, it gets suspended no cure period, no grace window like the old
$1 bid-price rule had.
That creates a specific, predictable incentive. A company sitting near or under
$5M MVLS needs either a higher price or more shares outstanding to get back above it and the fastest way to get both simultaneously is to pop the price and sell into it. An ATM, an equity line, or an S-1 offering raises the cash they usually also need, while the new shares issued add directly to the MVLS calculation. Same action, two problems solved. This screen tries to identify who's positioned to run exactly that playbook.
How it was built, step by step:
Universe: pulled Nasdaq micro/nanocap tickers (market cap, float, exchange filters).
Per-ticker data: pulled each company's dilution profile from dilution tracking sources, cash runway, risk ratings, and every financing instrument on file (S-1s, ATMs, equity lines, convertibles, warrants).
Parsing: Those profiles were parsed with proprietary AI tools and algorithms assistance to pull structured fields cash runway in months, and specifically which instruments are live right now, not just on record historically. That distinction mattered enough to build in explicitly: an S-1 only counts if its status is actually "In Progress," not already Priced or Withdrawn. An equity line or ATM only counts if it's still Registered, not Terminated or Replaced. A convertible only counts if it has a real remaining balance, not fully converted or repaid. Early parsing passes missed this distinction in places, so the data went through a manual verification and correction pass against the source filings before this version was finalized.
Reverse splits: cross-referenced against a running log of Nasdaq reverse splits since Jan 2026, since a fresh split (shrinking share count, resetting price) is often the opening move in this exact cycle.
MVLS trigger price: computed per ticker — the exact price at which price × shares outstanding =
$5M so you can see how close each name actually sits to the line.
All of that rolls into the Compliance Pump Risk score (1-10) in the far column, weighing: how far under the
$5M line the company sits, whether a reverse split hit in the last ~75 days, how many financing instruments are currently loaded and ready to fire, and how short the cash runway is.
The column guide, quickly: MVLS Tier flags whether the company is under
$5M (clock running) or in the
$5-7M buffer zone. Live Instruments lists what's actually armed right now. Cash Runway is months left at current burn. R/S shows the most recent reverse split and its status.
Now the important part, because this number gets misread easily: a high score does not mean "this is going up." It means the company has both the motive (compliance pressure) and the mechanism (loaded dilution instruments) to engineer a price move. Historically, that combination means any resulting spike gets sold into hard, by the company itself, through whatever instrument is sitting there. High score = high dilution/pump-then-fade risk. This is a list of who's positioned to run the pump-to-comply playbook, not a list of names that go up and hold.
Sorted highest to lowest, so row one carries the most of both ingredients.
Data pulled 7/27/26 from dilution tracking sources and parsed with proprietary AI tools and algorithms verify anything you'd actually trade against the primary SEC filings, since some of these names can revalue within hours.
NFA, sharing the process, not a recommendation.
