Feb. 14 at 4:29 PM
Midday: US beef inflation is still running hot even as broader inflation cools. January CPI showed beef/veal up 15% YoY, and uncooked ground beef hit a new record, while chicken was up just 1.1% and milk was roughly flat. The core driver is supply: the US cattle herd has fallen to its smallest level since the early 1950s after drought, high feed and land costs, and elevated interest rates discouraged herd rebuilding.
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Here’s what matters: Our view is this is a multi-year protein supply shock, not a one-quarter blip. If herd retention does not accelerate meaningfully by 2H26, beef inflation likely stays elevated into 2027, with continued margin pressure for processors/food buyers and ongoing consumer trade-down behavior toward cheaper proteins.
