Jun. 9 at 1:05 AM
$LU 1️⃣ June 30: AGM & Audited Accounts. We need a clean audit with strong unencumbered cash. If EY drops a "going-concern" warning, the fundamental asset floor breaks.
2️⃣ Late July: HKEX Resumption. Gated by the AGM. Restarting HK trading removes the massive forced-delisting overhang and restores price discovery.
3️⃣ Q3: Credit Data. Watch 31–60 DPD & C-M3 flow rates. We need to see them drop toward 4%. This proves the active cash bleed is finally stopping.
4️⃣ Q3/Q4: Dividends/Buybacks. Reinstating capital return is the ultimate multiple-expansion lever (look at
$QFIN). Proves the cash won't be trapped forever.
5️⃣ Oct 8: Ping An
$977M CB Maturity. The ultimate tell. If the stock recovers, Ping An converts at their
$4.64 strike (bullish magnet). If we're still stuck in the
$1S, they redeem at par, draining
$1B in cash away from minority holders.
