Sep. 3 at 12:35 AM
$QFIN is as washed out as a chart gets. I am watching it closely, but I am not calling a bottom yet — and the difference matters.
THE SETUP
Down from
$32.69 to
$8.55 — a 74% decline — and price is sitting AT the 52-week low
(
$8.35), not above it. RSI has collapsed to 20.9 against its own MA at 25.6. That is a
genuinely rare reading; stocks do not stay there indefinitely. Market cap is back to
$1.08B, the level where these names historically start attracting value and index flows.
WHY I AM NOT BUYING IT BLIND
Three honest problems:
- Earnings just reported. This decline may still be in motion, and fresh earnings
reactions are exactly where knife-catching gets expensive.
- JP Morgan cut its target to
$9.00 from
$13.50 last week. Price is already below the
reduced target — the street is capitulating, not defending.
- There is no structural support beneath current price until roughly
$6.98. When a stock
is at its low, there is nothing under you but air.
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM IT
A higher low above
$8.35, then a reclaim of
$9.47 on real volume. That sequence turns
"oversold" into "bottoming." Until then it is a falling knife with a great RSI reading.
THE PLAN (swing, shares, on confirmation)
- Trigger: higher low holds, then close above
$9.47
- T1:
$9.47 (+11%) — first real resistance, trim here
- T2:
$11.31 (+32%)
- Extended:
$12.17, then the 150/200MA cluster at
$13.76-15.01 (+61-75%) — that is the
full-recovery picture, not the trade
- Stop: close below
$7.90. If it takes out the low with conviction, the thesis is wrong
and there is a long way down.
Deeply oversold names produce the biggest bounces and the worst losses. The RSI gets my
attention. The confirmation gets my money.
[SWING] = shares, scale out at targets, let a runner work. Not financial advice.
Daily setups — link in bio.
