Oct. 2 at 3:06 PM
$HCTI Cliffs after the dip
• Why it fell: Warrant inducement = quick cash now (~
$1.63M) but near-term dilution. New share count ≈ 6.75M.
• Where we stand: At
$2.54, implied EV ≈
$9.2M vs
$12–14M revenue → only 0.6–0.8× EV/Sales (micro-cap peers often 2.0–3.5×).
• Fair value math: Base case ~
$6.47/sh (post-deal). Even if all new
$3 warrants exercise later, FV still ~
$6.10/sh (fully diluted).
• Execution tailwinds: QuantumNexis/Ezovion
$20M processed →
$37M guide; payment gateway adds a take-rate monetization lever.
• Watch next: 8-K terms, gateway go-live, regional wins (India/KSA/MY), new logos.
Bottom line: The deal stung, but cash runway improved and valuation is well below conservative comps. If execution continues, multiple expansion is the story.
$HCTI $OPRX $HIMS (Not financial advice.)
