Oct. 16 at 1:07 PM
After a 16% total return, I’m closing my
$MFC position.
I bought Manulife for the Asia growth engine, expecting improving profitability.
A year in, growth is fine, but NBV margins hover near ~40% and competition (AIA, Prudential) keeps pressure on mix and agent economics. The U.S. segment has been choppy with claims/credit provisions, while Global WAM is steady but not a needle-mover.
At today’s ~14–15x P/E and ~1.7x P/B, the easy re-rating is behind us. It’s a solid company with a strong balance sheet and a good dividend. But the risk/reward looks balanced, not asymmetric.
My updated model (more realistic growth by region) lands near US
$30/C
$42.X fair value, so upside feels capped unless Asia margins inflect.
I’m taking the win and redeploying into higher-upside ideas already on the Beating the Tide board.
https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/manulife-mfc-deep-dive-stock-analysis-beating-the-tide
