Jul. 14 at 10:57 PM
$LKNCY
Luckin doesn’t have to win coffee.
It needs to win daily beverages.
Fruit tea.
Refreshers.
Energy drinks.
Sparkling beverages.
Seasonal drinks.
Breakfast.
Desserts.
The TAM becomes much larger than coffee.
⸻
What does that look like?
Imagine in 2046:
* 80,000–120,000 stores.
* Hundreds of millions of monthly active customers.
* Revenue measured in tens of billions of dollars.
* Operating margins back in the mid-teens.
* A dominant consumer brand across Asia.
That company could reasonably be worth
$300–600 billion
If today’s market cap is about
$10 billion, that’s roughly 30–60× today’s value.
A
$33 stock could become
$1,000–2,000 over twenty years.
That sounds extreme.
But twenty years ago:
* Apple was worth about
$50 billion.
* Amazon about
$20 billion.
* Costco about
$20 billion.
* Monster Beverage under
$1 billion.
Compounding over two decades produces numbers that initially seem implausible.
