Nov. 18 at 3:29 PM
$EVH at ~
$3.80 looks broken on sentiment, not on fundamentals.
2025 guide:
$1.87–1.88B revenue and
$144–154M adj. EBITDA already on the board. Q3 revenue
$479.5M came in at the top of guidance and ahead of consensus.
Management is already talking about ~
$2.5B of 2026 revenue under contract with
$500M+ in newly contracted annualized revenue ramping next year.
They’re selling the Evolent Care Partners ACO business to
$PRVA for up to
$113M cash (>
$100M at close), which they expect to cut interest expense by ~
$10M/yr and improve FCF by >
$7M/yr, while sharpening focus on specialty/oncology.
At ~
$3.8, the market cap is only ~
$440M — that’s <0.25x 2025 revenue guidance for a business that’s already EBITDA-positive and growing.
Yes, there’s leverage + payer/policy risk, but at this price the equity is priced like the model is broken. If they simply execute on current guidance and close ECP cleanly, risk/reward from here looks massively asymmetric IMO. DYOR.
