Jun. 20 at 3:40 PM
$FLYW Stock reacts to every US China trade story out there but buy that dip - here's why. Chinese students make up 25% of international students in the US in 2024. In 2025 and 2026, I have already factored in a bit worse growth in the US than guide, and also continued that drag into 2026 such that the US cross border education revenues in 2026 are
$65M per my rev model, which I think is conservative and yet I'm nicely above cons. But let's say Trump not only stopped all new visas for Chinese, but he asked ALL of them to leave in a month. That's 25% of
$65M that would go away from 2026 US revs - and that is 2.2% of total revs. Get over it that's nothing, recent FX changes alone will likely add double that to consensus ests for 2026. And by the way, if this happens it means that the US has lost access to all Chinese rare earths, and the US economy will face massive damage, so how likely is that to happen. Meanwhile maybe half that lost 2.2% would go to the UK etc. Chill!