Sep. 15 at 6:11 PM
$FLYW Raised again. 90% allocation as of today (not saying 90% of my financial assets just to be clear, also partly hedged with spoos). Not sure why FLYW isn't retaining the gains post the CFO comments last week but I'm taking this pullback from
$14 to be an opportunity. I'm
$110M above cons for 2026. Sure they won't guide to that amount right away but still - remember that their incremental margins lately have been 40% give or take. So if they so chose they could drop an extra
$40M or more to the bottom line ebitda wise vs consensus. Then you get
$185M in 2026 ebitda. And that gives you 7.7x current EV to 2026 ebitda. As they leave all these tough headwinds behind in 2026 (even as they do 17% organic growth in 2025 so hardly a disaster right?) the valuation could easily be 3x that and still not look demanding. That's why I'm at 90% - be greedy when others are fearful (or maybe they are just ill informed).