Jul. 29 at 8:48 PM
Commercial-stage oncology focused bios that sell within 2 years of FDA approval deliver the best returns in the peer group (versus share prices as of FDA approval). 14 of the 16 oncology focused bios that sold at meaningful gains were sold within 2 years. 7 of the 8 that sold at large losses (excl 3 that went bankrupt) waited for more than 2 years to sell.
Attached is a list of all new comm'l-stage oncology focused bios since 1/1/2020 (excl. ONC). History suggests those with 1st approvals within the last year are most likely to exit via M&A at gains. Of course times change & we could be proven wrong in the future.
If we had to guess, and that's all it is, we'd guess the bios in green are most likely to sell within the next 12 months. This is for entertainment purposes only. There is zero chance we will be 100% right
$URGN (with recent 2nd approval)
$AUTL $ZYME $FENC (they've been trying to sell for years) &
$LEGN
Of the 35 still independent, only 7 trade higher today.
