Mar. 31 at 7:26 PM
$FEAM
Scenario outputs (1‑year projected price)
Bull (high success): FID achieved, EXIM
$285M loan approved, commercial financing largely non‑dilutive, meaningful offtake/contracts; market cap ×5 →
$272M → projected price ≈
$5.44. Estimated probability: 20–30%.
Base (partial success / execution risk): FID delayed/partial financing, smaller debt package or modest equity raise, some pilot sales/partnerships; market cap ×1.5 →
$81.6M → projected price ≈
$1.63. Estimated probability: 40–50%.
Bear (financing/permitting failure or major dilution): EXIM denied or materially delayed, large equity dilution or project downscale, limited commercial progress; market cap −60% →
$21.8M → projected price ≈
$0.44. Estimated probability: 20–30%.
