Feb. 23 at 2:18 AM
PickAlpha Weekend:
SCOTUS killing Trump’s IEEPA tariff hammer + Trump’s new 15% flat “baseline” has flipped the trade map: analysis from Global Trade Alert suggests Brazil’s average U.S. tariff burden drops ~13.6pp and China’s ~7.1pp, while close allies like the UK see increases (~+2.1pp). The catch: the new baseline is time-boxed (Section 122, 150 days) and the White House is already signaling a pivot to slower 301/232 pathways—so today’s “relief” can be temporary.
Tickers:
$EEM $FXI $EWZ
Our view is this is a rare window where EM wins on policy mechanics. If Trump can’t quickly rebuild a durable tariff regime, EM beta and global cyclicals can squeeze higher; if 301/232 re-loads by early summer, uncertainty snaps back and this turns into a fade.
