Jan. 29 at 11:33 AM
Citizens🏁
$BCAX
$MRK $GMAB
We initiate coverage of Bicara Therapeutics with a Market Outperform rating and
$31 price target based on a revenue and earnings multiple analysis.
Ficerafusp alfa (ficera), the company's flagship bifunctional EGFRxTGFß antibody, in combination with pembrolizumab has delivered standout efficacy in HPV- negative HNSCC.
The ongoing global Phase 2/3 FORTIFI trial is targeting ~650 patients and is moving forward at a selected dose of 1,500 mg, with a potential ORR data readout expected in mid-2027.
We view the recent acquisition of Merus by Genmab (GMAB, NC) for
$8B as validation, in part, of the HNSCC TAM, which we estimate could reach
$10B by 2034.
With ficera reporting competitive data with durable responses beyond two years, a Phase 2/3 trial
progressing expeditiously, and a cash position of
$407.6MM, we believe Bicara shares represent an attractive investment opportunity, with ~40% potential downside (bear case
$10) and ~210% potential upside (bull case
$52).
