Jan. 13 at 6:13 PM
$XYF Extreme scenario (1%)
Industry collapse, loss of 70% book value (spread defaults).
Adjusted Equity value:330 million-20% discount for VIE/China risk 264 million
Fair value
$6,76
Bearish scenario (15%):Business with zero profits/discountinuation, equity still intact
Adjusted equity value: 880 million
Fair value
$22,56
Standard (75%): Business slowdown, margin deterioration, slow to no growth assumption (~100 million annual income+ 880 million equity).
Assuming a 10 PE far value
$48
Bull case (9%):Initial slowdown but fast recovery, moderate growth assumption, profits gets back to its previous year (~250 million annual income+ 880 million equity).
Assuming a 15 PE fair value
$118
