Sep. 9 at 11:52 PM
$VYGR Five fireside chats in eight days. Wells Fargo (done), Cantor Friday, Morgan Stanley Monday, Baird and Wainwright Tuesday. Schedule below for anyone tracking it.
Worth being clear about what this is and isn't: fireside chats are management talking, not data. Nothing here is a catalyst. But I've been in and out of this name recently and I'm watching what they say about timing, so a few thoughts.
The only thing that matters out of these is whether Q4 tau PET timing gets narrowed, repeated, or quietly widened into early 2027. That last one, IMO, is the risk nobody's pricing.
Closed the trade, still watching, not chasing.
Put this one on in late July with the stock right at
$3.00. Sold the
$3 puts into fat IV, took it off north of
$3.50 for better than half the premium. Limit order filled and I was fine killing the duration risk rather than grinding out the last third. Stock never broke
$3 the whole time. Just chopped between 3.00 and 3.50 and paid me to wait.
Why I still care:
Tau is the most interesting target in Alzheimer's right now, and Voyager has two shots at it -- the VY7523 antibody and the VY1706 gene therapy.
•
$149M in the bank at Q2
• Runway into 2028
• North of
$500M in non-dilutive partner money to date from Neurocrine, Novartis and Alexion
They're not out begging for a raise, which is more than most
$200M biotechs can say.
Why I'm not back in yet:
The real binary is Q4 tau PET. Company hasn't named a venue, but CTAD runs Nov 16–19 in Boston and that's where they dropped the last dataset. Everything between here and there is noise.
Chart isn't helping either:
• Under the 50, 100 and 200 day
• ADX at 11
• Stochastic rolling over off 80
No trend, just chop. And the broader biotech tape is getting taken behind the woodshed.
Alzheimer's is a graveyard indication. Most of these die.
But the ones that work don't go up 40%... they go up multiples. That's the whole reason to be here, and it's also the reason to size it like you might be wrong.
Patience is free. I'll see how this develops over the coming weeks. Stay tuned. Please do your own DD and check everything. NFA.
