Sep. 4 at 8:56 PM
$SGMO
@Patrick2343 @ican @Chipoo
We know the official numbers from the July MOR:
$78.1 million in prepetition unsecured legacy claims, plus the DIP drawdown. Any dollar amount not officially listed there or recognized by the court effectively ceases to exist in the eyes of the That
$78.1 million represents the absolute ceiling.
While it is not guaranteed, there is a strong possibility that through settlements, statutory caps, and the elimination of invalid claims, this figure could potentially be negotiated down to roughly
$20 to
$25 million—which is exactly what the current base-case models project.
Aside from that, you are familiar with the waterfall models—which, in my view, provide a very precise breakdown ranging from worst-case to base-case and best-case scenarios. These have been shared here on the forum and are readily accessible on X.
I can’t imagine retail investors have ever had this level of forensic transparency when buying a regular stock in the past...