Apr. 22 at 12:06 AM
One question is quietly defining the next decade of AI infrastructure: who captures the
$1.6T testing TAM?
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At GTC, a Cisco engineer highlighted a hard truth: 400G test gear can’t validate 1.6T, and 1.6T won’t handle 3.2T. Every generational leap forces a full-stack reset in validation infrastructure.
Same dynamic as optics: fewer units shipped, but ASPs expand 3–4x per cycle.
$AAOI $LITE $COHR benefit as next-gen lasers become more complex, hotter, and significantly more expensive per unit.
Testing is even more concentrated.
$KEYS completed the
$1.46B Spirent deal, while DOJ forced key assets into
$VIAV for
$425M—effectively locking the market into a duopoly.
Less volume. Higher complexity. Structural pricing power shift.
