Nov. 26 at 9:24 PM
$CCOI So, I've been doing some research on Cogent since I opened a position. The more I've learned the more I plan to invest:
By 2028 they plan to have
$500 million in run rate revenue from wavelength. 95% contribution margins are anticipated. They want to capture 25% of the wavelength market long term, which has an anticipated CAGR of 7-12% in the next decade. This implies
$2-3 Billion TAM in the US by 2030. (Cogent would have
$500 -
$750 million in wavelength revs...if this all pans out). This is incredible if they can actually pull this off. So far, wavelengths have exceeded initial guidance (e.g., 92.5% YoY growth in Q3 2025), while overall revenue has lagged due to Sprint migration.
They own 125k miles of fiber. 32k of this is urban. a competitor would need to pay
$6-8 Billion to build this out. There doesn't seem any appetite for this capex in the industry. Competitors are already in debt (like cogent). So they have a moat.
