Sep. 12 at 10:24 PM
$TCOM is on my radar into Tuesday's AMC print, but for the opposite reason as
$FPS.
The stock has been in a steady grind lower since April, down from the mid-
$50S to
$39 now — that's roughly 27% below its 200-day moving average of
$53.91 and about 51% off its January highs. It's currently sitting right on a weekly trendline support zone, so this print is landing at a technically important spot rather than in the middle of a range.
What makes this one interesting isn't the chart, it's the disconnect between the headline growth numbers and what management actually said last quarter. Revenue grew a healthy 17.2% YoY, international bookings were up 65%, inbound travel up 90% — the demand side of the business is fine. But quarterly earnings growth YoY actually came in at -39.7%, and management guided next quarter's revenue growth down to just 3-8%, a sharp drop from the 16-21% pace they'd been running. When a management team downgrades its own growth outlook that hard and starts using language like "limited visibility," that's usually a bigger tell than any analyst model.
Options are pricing a fairly tame implied move of about ±7.4% for this print, well inside the ±15%+ range you see on names like FPS this week. Analyst price targets still average near
$59, over 50% above the current price, but that target reflects the old growth trajectory more than the new, more cautious one management just laid out.
So the setup here is: technically oversold at support, but fundamentally the company just told you to expect a deceleration. That tension is the whole story for Tuesday.
Not a buy or sell call, just walking through the setup as I see it. NFA, DYOR.🫣
