Oct. 21 at 9:09 AM
$SBIN.NSE
"State Bank of India — इस मुहूर्त से अगले मुहूर्त तक, ₹1000 की राह पर मजबूती और समृद्धि का सफर!"
Financial Performance
Revenue & Profit Growth:
$SBI’s FY25 results indicated strong growth in operating profit and stable net interest income (NII). Net profit grew ~22% YoY, driven by loan growth and lower provisions.
Net Interest Margin (NIM): Stable around 3.3% with steady yield improvement on advances.
Loan Book: Retail and SME portfolios are growing faster than the corporate book, improving balance sheet granularity.
Asset Quality:
$GROSS NPA reduced to 2.85%,
Net NPA down to 0.65% — among the best in PSU peers.
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): Around 14.5%, showing strong capital position.
Subsidiary Performance
$SBI Life,
$SBICARD.NSE Cards, and
$SBIN.NSE Mutual Fund continue to add significant profits to the consolidated entity. These subsidiaries not only enhance earnings visibility but also strengthen brand value.
Valuation
At the current level,
$SBI trades at 1.6x FY26E book value, still undervalued compared to private banks like HDFC Bank (2.3x) and ICICI Bank (2.0x). With consistent earnings growth and dividend yield (2%), SBI remains a strong value and growth play combined.
Technical View
On the weekly and monthly charts,
$SBI has shown remarkable strength:
The
$STOCK has broken out above ₹740–₹760 zone, which acted as long-term resistance for nearly 8 months.
Sustained trading above major moving averages (20WEMA, 50WEMA, and 200DMA).
RSI (14): 68 – indicating healthy bullish strength without overbought stress.
MACD: Positive crossover confirms continuation of uptrend.
Volume trend: Rising volume during upswings indicates strong institutional participation.
Pattern Formation: A “bullish flag” and “cup & handle” pattern visible on higher timeframes, both of which are continuation patterns suggesting a further breakout toward ₹1,000+.
Support Levels: ₹800 → ₹770
Resistance Levels: ₹900 → ₹950 → ₹1,000 → ₹1,050
Trend Structure: Higher high, higher low sequence intact.
Sector & Macro View
Credit Cycle Expansion: The Indian economy is witnessing a strong credit growth cycle, supported by government capex, private investment, and retail demand.
PSU Bank Re-Rating: PSU banks have entered a re-rating phase after decades of underperformance due to improved balance sheets and profitability.
Digital Transformation: SBI’s leadership in digital transactions and retail credit through YONO app positions it ahead of PSU peers.
Interest Rate Outlook: RBI’s likely rate cuts in mid-2026 could improve credit growth and reduce funding costs, benefitting large lenders like SBI.
Key Triggers (Next 12 Months)
Q3–Q4 FY25 Results: Steady profit growth and improving NIMs expected.
Subsidiary Value Unlocking: Possible listing or stake monetization in SBI Mutual Fund or
$SBI General Insurance.
Government Capex Push: Increased infrastructure spending drives loan demand in infra & MSME segments.
Rural Revival: Good monsoon may boost rural credit demand.
Global Tailwinds: FII inflows expected to return to India’s banking space in FY26.
Risks & Concerns
Any delay in rate-cut cycle may keep
$NIMS under mild pressure.
Global uncertainty or higher bond yields could affect FII inflows.
Being a PSU, policy-related decisions or government mandates can impact margins.
However, these risks are manageable given SBI’s balance sheet strength and leadership status.
Forecast / Muhurat to Muhurat View
With strong fundamentals, favorable macro trends, improving credit growth,
$BULLISH technical setup, SBI looks well-positioned to deliver a 15–20% return in the next 12 months.
Our analysis suggests that from this Muhurat (Diwali 2025) to next Muhurat (Diwali 2026), SBI could touch ₹1,000–₹1,050 levels, supported by steady earnings growth, PSU re-rating, and institutional buying.
Expected Range: ₹770 – ₹1,050
Target Price: ₹1,000+
Investment Horizon: 12 Months
View: Strong Bullish
Disclaimer
This report is prepared purely for educational and informational purposes. It should not be considered as investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell securities. Market investments are subject to risks, and past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Disclosure
Author/Analyst – Deepak Pal, SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000012856), BSE Enlisted No. 5845.
The analyst and/or associates may or may not hold positions in the mentioned stock at the time of publication.
