May. 13 at 5:22 PM
$EVH
Healthcare technology and specialty management companies typically trade at 8x to 12x Forward EBITDA.
The Conservative Math (8x Multiple):
• 2027 EBITDA:
$285M
• Implied Enterprise Value (8x):
$2.28 Billion
• Minus Estimated Debt: –
$700M (assuming pay-downs from cash flow)
• Implied Market Cap:
$1.58 Billion
• Stock Price Target: ~
$13.00 (approx. 225% upside from
$4.00)
The Moderate Math (10x Multiple):
• Implied Enterprise Value (10x):
$2.85 Billion
• Minus Estimated Debt: –
$700M
• Implied Market Cap:
$2.15 Billion
• Stock Price Target: ~
$18.00 (approx. 350% upside from
$4.00)
At
$4.00, you are essentially buying a
$2.5B+ revenue business for 0.2x Sales. For context, even "low-growth" healthcare utilities usually trade at 0.8x to 1.0x Sales. A return to just 0.6x Sales would put the stock in the
$12.00–
$14.00 range.
