Mar. 28 at 10:48 PM
$EVH 📈 0.1x P/S for
$2.5B revenue is a historic dislocation. Here is the path to correction:
💰 Valuation Levels:
P/S Reset: Move to 0.4x (Peer low) ➡️
$9.00
Bull Case: 12x EV/EBITDA on
$150M Run-Rate ➡️
$10.00
🛤️ The Path:
Q1 (May 14) confirms MER peak ➡️ H2 margin snap-back (70% of EBITDA) ➡️ Q4 proves
$150M+ annual pace.
Debt is de-risked into the
$700M range. The market is lagging behind the mathematical reality. Execution is mechanical.
Why these levels make sense:
• The P/S Dislocation: At 0.1x Sales, the market is valuing Evolent’s contracts as if they have zero margin. Moving to even a "distressed" peer level of 0.4x (like a struggling Teladoc) would quadruple the stock price.
• The EBITDA "Floor": A
$5.00 price target only requires a 10x multiple on the current 2026 EBITDA midpoint. For a growth company, 10x is incredibly conservative.
• The Run-Rate Target: The
$10.00+ range is where the stock lands once the market accepts the
$150M+ Q4 run rate as the new "normal" for 2027.
