Jan. 26 at 4:39 PM
PickAlpha Midday
News facts: Cross-asset was the story to start the week: the dollar slid to a 4-month low while gold cleared
$5,000, with markets also trading the idea of US-Japan coordination around USD/JPY. Equities still pushed higher (helped by power/energy names) as a winter storm knocked ~12% of US nat gas output offline and sent gas >
$6, while Treasuries stayed rangebound ahead of a mega-cap heavy earnings week and a likely Fed hold.
Tickers:
$DXY $GC.X=F
$NG=F
Our view is this is a “positioning + regime” tell: falling
$DXY + ripping gold says hedges are getting topped up even as equities grind higher — not panic, but a demand for protection into event risk (megacap prints + Fed). If AI capex results don’t validate the spend, broadening can turn into “catch-down” in the biggest names; if guidance keeps surprising outside tech, broadening shifts to earnings-driven and dips in the crowded leaders become less scary.
